Welcome to Macro Voices - Results from #20

About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deflation vs. Inflation
  • Is it MMT that makes the difference between depression and reflation?
  • Equity market outlook after the COVID-19 crisis

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Ben Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

  • Three narratives of Coronavirus crisis
  • Is the recent monetary & fiscal response to COVID-19 leading us from deflation to inflation? 
  • Will the Federal Reserve Act have to change?
  • Frontline Heroes- how did it start and how can others help?

     Donate to Frontline Heroes  

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar Outlook – Why Brent still forecasts an upside resolution to the USD consolidation
  • S&P 500 forecast
  • Gold & Gold Miners
  • Commodities outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #104 Brent Johnson Chartbook May 11 2020

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss:

  • What cycle should we focus on amidst the crisis
  • 3D’s of recession: Depth, Diffusion, Duration
  • Exogenous shock factors: how is this recession different than others? 
  • Based on historic cycles, what should we expect next?
  • What can we learn from economic cycles as we try to get out of deflation?
  • Is coronavirus crisis becoming a catalyst to a US/China “cold war”? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

  • Core thesis on interest rates and inflation
  • Constraints on zero bound interest rates in the US
  • How do you invest in this zero bound interest rate environment?
  • How to interpret FED policy on inflation
  • Perspectives on the FED bailing out the high yield market
  • Will the Federal Reserve be allowed to print money?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Bank reserves fall under an outdated definition of "base money", therefore it isn't clear what an increase in bank reserves actually signifies.
  • Beginning with inflation expectations, if the Fed was printing money then its missing from the bond market; TIPS suggest crisis level lows for short run and long run inflation conditions (deflation, in other words)
  • Despite that $1.5 trillion, LIBOR remains crucially elevated; TED spread behaving just like 2008
  • You're not supposed to question what central banks actually do, because if you think through the actual process you'll see there's far less than you're made to believe (belief is what matters in modern monetary policy)

Supporting Materials for Download

Not Money Printing - GFC2: The Bowl's Empty 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Why USO’s 1:8 reverse split is a setup for massive retail inflows to Crude Oil ETPs this week
  • Why oil producers will be taking the other side of futures bought by USO and other ETPs
  • The perfect storm: What happens when a historically unprecedented % of shorts stand for physical delivery
  • There simply is no good solution: Even with a financial bailout, the logistic nightmare could cripple the industry

Supporting Materials for Download

Bianco Research Presentation 04 27 2020 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • General market outlook
  • Will the Fed put a floor on the stock market?
  • Is the government’s response to COVID-19 crisis leading to secular inflation?
  • Investment strategy to navigate ongoing market volatility
  • Bond yields - is there really a zero lower limit?
  • Impacts of COVID-19 crisis on emerging market equities
  • Impending friction between US/China and its economic implications

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

 

Rosenberg Research 

30-Day Free Trial to Rosenberg Research 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Louis’ post-crisis macro outlook
  • U.S.-China relations after the crisis and what it means for markets
  • Erik & Louis comment on the crash of May Crude oil futures to -$40 in real time as it happens in the market

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Recap: What is Dragon portfolio?
  • How has dragon portfolio performed amidst the COVID-19 crisis
  • Consequences of government monetary intervention
  • Long-vol strategy: what worked and what didn’t?
  • What implications could secular inflation bring to dragon portfolio?
  • Commodity trend: what does it mean? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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