Welcome to Macro Voices - Results from #10

About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • OPEC+ Production cut and the spring rally
  • Flaws in the assumption that shut-in oil wells
  • Decline rates – how does it work?
  • Forecast on oil production – will it go up and what’s next?
  • How much is the industry and its production hedged?
  • Unaccounted for oil – why is there so much of it?
  • Is the storage crisis really over?
  • Recent recovery - are we back to pre-crisis consumption?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chartbook that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • The Hong Kong Debacle: Why Xi Jinping needs to save Hong Kong rather than sacrifice it
  • U.S. Dollar weakness: What’s driving it and where is it headed?
  • Civil unrest in the USA and elsewhere: What are the causes and what comes next?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Diego Parrilla to MacroVoices. Erik and Diego discuss:

  • How to interpret the strong market action despite the pandemic and civil unrest
  • What’s next for US Dollar?
  • Recent downside move in Gold – is this the time to buy? 
  • Perspectives on the rapid recovery in oil prices
  • Shift from deflation to inflation/stagflation – how long will this take?
  • False diversification
  • Likelihood of a risk parity unwind and its risks 

 

MacroVoices #190 Diego Parrilla: They'll change the rules to bail out the system 

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • The Fed has been extremely aggressive and markets have responded – are we headed towards all time highs?
  • Tapering of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and what it means for the markets
  • How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Vikram Mansharamani to MacroVoices. Erik and Vikram discuss:

  • What kind of recovery should we expect post-COVID19?
  • Increasing civil unrest – what could that mean for investors?
  • Will this “work from 德扑之星app下载home” trend continue even after the crisis is over?
  • What are the least obvious implications of this crisis?
  • Impacts of the crisis on businesses and supply chains moving forward
  • US/China geopolitical relations
  • Perspective on the US dollar as the world reserve currency
  • Implications of a secular shift from deflation/stagflation to inflation

Pre-order THINK FOR YOURSELF By Vikram Mansharamani 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • If the Fed really was printing money, there'd be no need to sell it to the public in general, financial services industry specifically.
  • Chairman Powell appeared on 60 Minutes in May, and while everyone focused on his statement "create money digitally" no one noticed three important lies the Chairman told.
  • There isn't the slightest hint of inflation in any meaningful market after almost three months of so-called money printing. Nor in corporate boardrooms.
  • The most optimistic case, the base comparison the Fed (and CBO) is using, is that this will all end up being worse than the 2008-09 Great "Recession." 
  • Hopefully back to even by the end of next year isn't quite what people have in mind, and that's why this openly aggressive central bank response (lying).

Supporting Materials for Download

                                                                  The Flood Myth - Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 06 01 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

  • Is now the time to focus on secular shift in precious metals?
  • Secular shift to inflation or stagflation – what would that mean for precious metals?
  • How does this pandemic compare to the recession of 2008
  • The impact of weak commodities on precious metals
  • Can gold substitute for bonds in portfolios?
  • Impacts of strong USD on gold
  • Perspectives on mining stocks
  • Outlook on silver
  • Bitcoin vs. Gold
  • Are we due for a technical correction?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the report that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ronald will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Shape of the economic recovery: Why “Letter Shapes” like V, W, L, and U are insufficient to describe what will occur
  • How financial markets will react to multiple recovery scenarios in the real economy
  • U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID19 world
  • State of the art in industrial drone technology

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • What kind of recovery should we expect post-COVID19?
  • Is this the top of the bear market rally or will we test new all-time highs again?
  • Has the central banks largesse gone as far as it can go?
  • Are we heading from secular deflation to secular inflation?
  • Will the west’s indebtedness lead to “Japanification” 
  • US dollar losing its reserve currency status – what would that entail?
  • Gold outlook post-crisis
  • Can all fiat currencies be devalued at the same time?

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Daniel will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at nanjingbb.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the 德扑之星app下载home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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Erik Townsend Scott Lynn to MacroVoices. Erik and Scott discuss:

  • Fine Art as an asset class: Why some of the biggest names in finance are diversifying into Fine Art collections
  • Performance and correlation characteristics of Fine Art in Portfolio Construction
  • Why “Blue Chip” Fine Art (most famous and well-known artists) delivers the best investment returns
  • The Securitization Model: Fractional ownership of fine art masterpieces through securitized holding companies

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here

 

 

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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